Setting description

Equal randomization: PARPi more effective in the HRD+ biomarker signature (cfr scen 6)

Simulations setting

Survival curves (by signature)


PFS distributions (by signature)


Treatment effects (by signature)

signature var Other ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.021, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 44.6, median = 36.4
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.14, hr = 0.84
TP53- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.021, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 44.9, median = 36.6
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.15, hr = 0.84
TP53+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.021, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 44.3, median = 36.2
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.13, hr = 0.85
HRD+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.012, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 74.3, median = 60.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.9, hr = 0.43
TEfus+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.02, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 47, median = 38.4
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.2, hr = 0.79



Survival curves (by subgroup)


PFS distributions (by subgroup)


Treatment effects (by subgroup)

subtype var Other ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
— param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
–+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
-+- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
-++ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
+– param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.012, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 74.3, median = 60.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.9, hr = 0.43
+-+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.012, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 74.3, median = 60.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.9, hr = 0.43
++- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.012, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 74.3, median = 60.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.9, hr = 0.43
+++ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.012, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 74.3, median = 60.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.9, hr = 0.43

Errors and power


graduation (counts and proportions):
ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all 4 3 83
TP53- 8 5 99
TP53+ 4 10 92
HRD+ 6 4 422
TEfus+ 3 5 84
ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all 0.008 0.006 0.166
TP53- 0.016 0.010 0.198
TP53+ 0.008 0.020 0.184
HRD+ 0.012 0.008 0.844
TEfus+ 0.006 0.010 0.168
futility (counts and proportions):
ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all 56 63 1
TP53- 222 221 21
TP53+ 195 198 27
HRD+ 195 194 0
TEfus+ 176 197 11
ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all 0.112 0.126 0.002
TP53- 0.444 0.442 0.042
TP53+ 0.390 0.396 0.054
HRD+ 0.390 0.388 0.000
TEfus+ 0.352 0.394 0.022
max sample size (counts and proportions):
ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all 0 0 0
TP53- 77 72 83
TP53+ 6 7 11
HRD+ 0 0 0
TEfus+ 0 0 0
ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all 0.000 0.000 0.000
TP53- 0.154 0.144 0.166
TP53+ 0.012 0.014 0.022
HRD+ 0.000 0.000 0.000
TEfus+ 0.000 0.000 0.000


Errors & power

The overall error was 0.154.
The corresponding errors separate for the different treatments were:

     ARSi Taxane_CT     PARPi 
    0.042     0.048     0.080

The overall power was 0.844.
The corresponding power separate for the different treatments were:

     ARSi Taxane_CT     PARPi 
    0.000     0.000     0.844

Median results at the end of the trial

By signature:
signature var Control ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all graduation 0 4 3 83
futility 0 56 63 1
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 533 (476, 592) 368 (200, 529) 348 (192, 527) 436 (277, 533)
n_unique 533 (476, 592) 368 (200, 529) 348 (192, 527) 436 (277, 533)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (48, 60) 60 (41, 60) 60 (40, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 28 (17, 53) 30 (15, 50) 38 (23, 54)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.48 (0.08, 0.87) 0.45 (0.07, 0.86) 0.97 (0.73, 1)
rate 0.021 (0.019, 0.022) 0.021 (0.019, 0.024) 0.022 (0.019, 0.025) 0.018 (0.016, 0.019)
TP53- graduation 0 8 5 99
futility 0 222 221 21
max_n 0 77 72 83
n 290 (250, 330) 216 (60, 301) 214 (63, 301) 246 (132, 302)
n_unique 290 (250, 330) 216 (60, 301) 214 (63, 301) 246 (132, 302)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (15, 60) 60 (16, 60) 60 (36, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 24 (13, 48) 24 (14, 49) 38 (17, 55)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.46 (0.09, 0.88) 0.45 (0.09, 0.88) 0.93 (0.57, 1)
rate 0.021 (0.019, 0.023) 0.022 (0.019, 0.026) 0.022 (0.019, 0.026) 0.018 (0.016, 0.02)
TP53+ graduation 0 4 10 92
futility 0 195 198 27
max_n 0 6 7 11
n 241 (204, 286) 184 (65, 250) 175 (61, 254) 198 (105, 262)
n_unique 241 (204, 286) 184 (65, 250) 175 (61, 254) 198 (105, 262)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (20, 60) 60 (19, 60) 60 (38, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 28 (16, 53) 25 (16, 48) 40 (19, 55)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.46 (0.09, 0.88) 0.45 (0.08, 0.88) 0.89 (0.45, 0.99)
rate 0.021 (0.018, 0.023) 0.021 (0.019, 0.026) 0.022 (0.018, 0.026) 0.018 (0.015, 0.021)
HRD+ graduation 0 6 4 422
futility 0 195 194 0
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 145 (106, 177) 88 (50, 159) 87 (50, 160) 95 (61, 135)
n_unique 145 (106, 177) 88 (50, 159) 87 (50, 160) 95 (61, 135)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (27, 60) 60 (27, 60) 42 (31, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 34 (24, 53) 34 (23, 50) 40 (31, 53)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.41 (0.07, 0.86) 0.39 (0.08, 0.85) 1 (1, 1)
rate 0.021 (0.018, 0.024) 0.022 (0.018, 0.027) 0.022 (0.018, 0.028) 0.01 (0.008, 0.012)
TEfus+ graduation 0 3 5 84
futility 0 176 197 11
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 199 (162, 229) 126 (55, 205) 121 (53, 198) 156 (93, 205)
n_unique 199 (162, 229) 126 (55, 205) 121 (53, 198) 156 (93, 205)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (23, 60) 60 (22, 60) 60 (43, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 30 (19, 52) 29 (19, 51) 42 (29, 56)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.45 (0.09, 0.84) 0.45 (0.09, 0.84) 0.93 (0.59, 1)
rate 0.021 (0.018, 0.024) 0.022 (0.019, 0.027) 0.022 (0.018, 0.026) 0.017 (0.014, 0.019)


By subgroup combinations:
subtype var Control ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
— graduation 0 240 236 174
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 77 72 83
n 158 (131, 189) 127 (33, 167) 128 (36, 169) 145 (73, 180)
n_unique 158 (131, 189) 127 (33, 167) 128 (36, 169) 145 (73, 180)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.48 (0.14, 0.9) 0.5 (0.09, 0.88) 0.53 (0.15, 0.85)
rate 0.021 (0.018, 0.024) 0.022 (0.018, 0.026) 0.022 (0.018, 0.026) 0.021 (0.018, 0.024)
–+ graduation 0 302 320 215
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 76 66 82
n 49 (36, 62) 30 (9, 54) 29 (10, 52) 42 (20, 59)
n_unique 49 (36, 62) 30 (9, 54) 29 (10, 52) 42 (20, 59)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.48 (0.14, 0.85) 0.45 (0.1, 0.83) 0.48 (0.1, 0.84)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.027) 0.022 (0.016, 0.031) 0.022 (0.016, 0.032) 0.022 (0.016, 0.029)
-+- graduation 0 211 221 169
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 6 7 11
n 100 (80, 129) 83 (26, 112) 81 (27, 110) 89 (45, 119)
n_unique 100 (80, 129) 83 (26, 112) 81 (27, 110) 89 (45, 119)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.47 (0.11, 0.86) 0.46 (0.11, 0.9) 0.48 (0.13, 0.89)
rate 0.021 (0.017, 0.025) 0.021 (0.017, 0.027) 0.022 (0.017, 0.028) 0.021 (0.017, 0.025)
-++ graduation 0 286 302 217
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 6 7 11
n 77 (57, 99) 53 (18, 84) 50 (17, 82) 65 (30, 93)
n_unique 77 (57, 99) 53 (18, 84) 50 (17, 82) 65 (30, 93)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.48 (0.12, 0.87) 0.48 (0.1, 0.86) 0.46 (0.11, 0.87)
rate 0.02 (0.017, 0.026) 0.022 (0.017, 0.029) 0.022 (0.017, 0.029) 0.021 (0.017, 0.027)
+– graduation 0 326 325 406
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 73 68 72
n 41 (26, 53) 25 (8, 49) 25 (8, 49) 26 (16, 43)
n_unique 41 (26, 53) 25 (8, 49) 25 (8, 49) 26 (16, 43)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.39 (0.1, 0.82) 0.42 (0.11, 0.81) 0.97 (0.79, 1)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.027) 0.022 (0.015, 0.032) 0.021 (0.015, 0.033) 0.01 (0.006, 0.014)
+-+ graduation 0 357 370 414
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 73 63 72
n 40 (25, 54) 21 (9, 48) 20 (9, 49) 27 (15, 43)
n_unique 40 (25, 54) 21 (9, 48) 20 (9, 49) 27 (15, 43)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.37 (0.08, 0.77) 0.39 (0.1, 0.79) 0.97 (0.72, 1)
rate 0.021 (0.015, 0.028) 0.022 (0.016, 0.034) 0.022 (0.016, 0.033) 0.01 (0.006, 0.015)
++- graduation 0 322 322 456
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 6 6 11
n 31 (19, 42) 20 (8, 38) 20 (7, 39) 20 (10, 31)
n_unique 31 (19, 42) 20 (8, 38) 20 (7, 39) 20 (10, 31)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.43 (0.11, 0.8) 0.37 (0.1, 0.77) 0.93 (0.65, 0.99)
rate 0.021 (0.014, 0.028) 0.021 (0.014, 0.031) 0.022 (0.015, 0.033) 0.01 (0.005, 0.016)
+++ graduation 0 361 369 465
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 6 6 11
n 30 (17, 44) 17 (7, 40) 16 (7, 38) 20 (10, 32)
n_unique 30 (17, 44) 17 (7, 40) 16 (7, 38) 20 (10, 32)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.4 (0.11, 0.77) 0.42 (0.11, 0.79) 0.94 (0.7, 1)
rate 0.021 (0.015, 0.028) 0.022 (0.014, 0.033) 0.021 (0.014, 0.034) 0.009 (0.005, 0.015)

Median results over time

Signatures:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates


Subgroup combinations:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates

Median results at stop

By signature

Graduation:
signature var ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all count 4 3 83
time_stop 44 (26, 55) 42 (32, 44) 38 (23, 54)
n_trt 264 (167, 444) 323 (251, 337) 302 (169, 414)
n_control 396 (216, 498) 323 (251, 368) 312 (174, 495)
post_p 0.95 (0.9, 0.99) 0.98 (0.95, 0.99) 1 (0.96, 1)
order 1.5 (1, 2) 2 (1.2, 2) 2 (1, 3)
TP53- count 8 5 99
time_stop 50 (41, 56) 44 (38, 57) 41 (29, 56)
n_trt 223 (191, 243) 183 (148, 273) 181 (123, 258)
n_control 254 (199, 271) 186 (162, 276) 193 (131, 280)
post_p 0.98 (0.93, 0.99) 1 (0.98, 1) 0.99 (0.94, 1)
order 2 (2, 3) 2 (1, 2.6) 1 (1, 3)
TP53+ count 4 10 92
time_stop 52 (38, 59) 42 (35, 54) 44 (29, 56)
n_trt 164 (124, 214) 160 (123, 209) 148 (94, 205)
n_control 192 (132, 242) 178 (152, 226) 170 (105, 235)
post_p 0.98 (0.97, 0.99) 0.97 (0.95, 0.99) 0.99 (0.95, 1)
order 2 (1.3, 3.4) 2 (1, 3) 2 (1, 3.9)
HRD+ count 6 4 422
time_stop 52 (44, 58) 43 (38, 52) 40 (31, 53)
n_trt 96 (77, 150) 104 (99, 142) 93 (65, 131)
n_control 134 (116, 154) 114 (101, 164) 97 (69, 136)
post_p 0.99 (0.97, 1) 0.98 (0.96, 1) 1 (0.98, 1)
order 2 (1.5, 3.5) 2.5 (1.3, 3.7) 1 (1, 2)
TEfus+ count 3 5 84
time_stop 35 (29, 49) 53 (32, 57) 44 (33, 56)
n_trt 83 (76, 93) 152 (87, 173) 124 (80, 160)
n_control 125 (105, 164) 184 (98, 198) 140 (95, 187)
post_p 0.98 (0.95, 0.99) 0.97 (0.96, 1) 0.99 (0.97, 1)
order 1 (1, 3.4) 2 (1.4, 2) 2 (1, 4)
Futility:
signature var ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all count 56 63 1
time_stop 28 (16, 53) 30 (15, 51) 15 (15, 15)
n_trt 168 (110, 292) 181 (96, 332) 110 (110, 110)
n_control 226 (134, 463) 249 (120, 398) 108 (108, 108)
post_p 0.09 (0.01, 0.19) 0.07 (0.01, 0.2) 0 (0, 0)
order 3 (1.5, 6) 3 (1, 6.8) 1 (1, 1)
TP53- count 222 221 21
time_stop 23 (13, 47) 23 (14, 49) 15 (12, 31)
n_trt 98 (54, 206) 97 (55, 209) 62 (53, 132)
n_control 99 (53, 220) 100 (55, 214) 70 (43, 144)
post_p 0.17 (0.05, 0.27) 0.19 (0.07, 0.27) 0.23 (0.07, 0.27)
order 2 (1, 4.9) 2 (1, 5) 1 (1, 2)
TP53+ count 195 198 27
time_stop 27 (16, 52) 25 (16, 46) 20 (14, 33)
n_trt 93 (53, 201) 81 (54, 174) 70 (51, 122)
n_control 96 (53, 210) 87 (53, 180) 68 (49, 120)
post_p 0.16 (0.05, 0.27) 0.16 (0.06, 0.28) 0.2 (0.1, 0.28)
order 2 (1, 5.6) 2 (1, 5) 1 (1, 3.4)
HRD+ count 195 194
time_stop 34 (24, 52) 34 (23, 50)
n_trt 62 (50, 106) 62 (50, 103)
n_control 79 (49, 131) 78 (48, 120)
post_p 0.16 (0.04, 0.27) 0.16 (0.04, 0.28)
order 3 (1, 5) 3 (1, 5)
TEfus+ count 176 197 11
time_stop 30 (19, 52) 29 (19, 50) 26 (17, 50)
n_trt 76 (52, 132) 71 (52, 146) 87 (51, 124)
n_control 93 (52, 171) 89 (50, 170) 75 (48, 142)
post_p 0.16 (0.05, 0.27) 0.16 (0.05, 0.26) 0.18 (0.04, 0.29)
order 3 (1, 5) 3 (1, 5) 2 (1, 3)


By subgroup combinations

Graduation:
signature treatment var — –+ -+- -++ +– +-+ ++- +++
all ARSi count 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
time 44 (26, 55) 44 (26, 55) 44 (26, 55) 44 (26, 55) 44 (26, 55) 44 (26, 55) 44 (26, 55) 44 (26, 55)
n 58 (33, 125) 24 (8, 38) 62 (38, 70) 48 (28, 70) 18 (8, 39) 22 (11, 46) 26 (9, 36) 20 (13, 26)
post_p 0.68 (0.59, 0.88) 0.64 (0.58, 0.71) 0.72 (0.62, 0.82) 0.64 (0.57, 0.77) 0.72 (0.62, 0.83) 0.58 (0.56, 0.81) 0.63 (0.57, 0.78) 0.62 (0.57, 0.83)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.019 (0.017, 0.023) 0.018 (0.01, 0.019) 0.02 (0.019, 0.022) 0.017 (0.016, 0.018) 0.012 (0.009, 0.015) 0.01 (0.007, 0.019) 0.011 (0.003, 0.015) 0.011 (0.003, 0.015)
Taxane_CT count 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
time 42 (32, 44) 42 (32, 44) 42 (32, 44) 42 (32, 44) 42 (32, 44) 42 (32, 44) 42 (32, 44) 42 (32, 44)
n 97 (80, 102) 22 (17, 25) 59 (54, 69) 47 (31, 48) 23 (20, 29) 24 (20, 31) 15 (9, 21) 18 (16, 24)
post_p 0.83 (0.79, 0.87) 0.61 (0.6, 0.7) 0.7 (0.59, 0.93) 0.59 (0.56, 0.87) 0.68 (0.62, 0.81) 0.56 (0.56, 0.67) 0.66 (0.62, 0.85) 0.56 (0.56, 0.62)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.016 (0.015, 0.018) 0.013 (0.012, 0.016) 0.02 (0.015, 0.02) 0.019 (0.014, 0.026) 0.015 (0.013, 0.016) 0.016 (0.015, 0.016) 0.011 (0.009, 0.014) 0.015 (0.015, 0.017)
PARPi count 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83
time 38 (23, 54) 38 (23, 54) 38 (23, 54) 38 (23, 54) 38 (23, 54) 38 (23, 54) 38 (23, 54) 38 (23, 54)
n 84 (54, 142) 26 (13, 44) 56 (31, 85) 41 (23, 63) 21 (12, 33) 21 (14, 32) 16 (9, 25) 17 (9, 24)
post_p 0.72 (0.58, 0.88) 0.65 (0.57, 0.9) 0.7 (0.56, 0.88) 0.64 (0.56, 0.88) 0.86 (0.6, 0.99) 0.76 (0.59, 0.98) 0.8 (0.6, 0.94) 0.76 (0.56, 0.96)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.017 (0.011, 0.02) 0.014 (0.006, 0.02) 0.016 (0.011, 0.021) 0.017 (0.01, 0.021) 0.008 (0, 0.014) 0.008 (0, 0.013) 0.007 (0, 0.012) 0.008 (0, 0.014)
TP53- ARSi count 8 8 8 8
time 50 (41, 56) 50 (41, 56) 50 (41, 56) 50 (41, 56)
n 117 (107, 137) 38 (36, 47) 30 (20, 42) 30 (20, 38)
post_p 0.8 (0.73, 0.9) 0.77 (0.72, 0.93) 0.84 (0.72, 0.9) 0.81 (0.72, 0.86)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.017 (0.016, 0.018) 0.015 (0.013, 0.02) 0.012 (0.008, 0.017) 0.014 (0.009, 0.015)
Taxane_CT count 5 5 5 5
time 44 (38, 57) 44 (38, 57) 44 (38, 57) 44 (38, 57)
n 97 (77, 132) 42 (23, 44) 34 (20, 43) 25 (21, 58)
post_p 0.73 (0.71, 0.83) 0.84 (0.75, 0.87) 0.89 (0.73, 0.93) 0.86 (0.79, 0.96)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.019 (0.015, 0.019) 0.015 (0.012, 0.017) 0.012 (0.01, 0.017) 0.011 (0.004, 0.018)
PARPi count 99 99 99 99
time 41 (29, 56) 41 (29, 56) 41 (29, 56) 41 (29, 56)
n 95 (67, 147) 28 (19, 45) 25 (16, 35) 24 (15, 37)
post_p 0.8 (0.71, 0.93) 0.76 (0.7, 0.89) 0.85 (0.72, 0.98) 0.84 (0.72, 0.98)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.017 (0.012, 0.021) 0.015 (0.008, 0.021) 0.008 (0.003, 0.013) 0.009 (0.002, 0.013)
TP53+ ARSi count 4 4 4 4
time 52 (38, 59) 52 (38, 59) 52 (38, 59) 52 (38, 59)
n 72 (51, 88) 51 (43, 61) 27 (16, 32) 14 (12, 36)
post_p 0.88 (0.77, 0.91) 0.82 (0.74, 0.91) 0.83 (0.79, 0.85) 0.72 (0.71, 0.81)
r_prob 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.019 (0.017, 0.022) 0.015 (0.013, 0.018) 0.012 (0.007, 0.015) 0.014 (0.013, 0.019)
Taxane_CT count 10 10 10 10
time 42 (35, 54) 42 (35, 54) 42 (35, 54) 42 (35, 54)
n 62 (53, 94) 50 (27, 71) 24 (18, 33) 20 (9, 38)
post_p 0.83 (0.75, 0.89) 0.83 (0.71, 0.94) 0.72 (0.7, 0.78) 0.75 (0.72, 0.87)
r_prob 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.018 (0.013, 0.02) 0.014 (0.011, 0.018) 0.012 (0.007, 0.018) 0.013 (0.003, 0.017)
PARPi count 92 92 92 92
time 44 (29, 56) 44 (29, 56) 44 (29, 56) 44 (29, 56)
n 64 (38, 86) 47 (28, 75) 18 (10, 29) 18 (9, 27)
post_p 0.79 (0.71, 0.94) 0.77 (0.71, 0.89) 0.84 (0.71, 0.97) 0.85 (0.71, 0.97)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.016 (0.012, 0.02) 0.015 (0.01, 0.02) 0.007 (0, 0.013) 0.008 (0, 0.013)
HRD+ ARSi count 6 6 6 6
time 52 (44, 58) 52 (44, 58) 52 (44, 58) 52 (44, 58)
n 34 (16, 43) 34 (16, 48) 24 (12, 34) 20 (14, 27)
post_p 0.78 (0.71, 0.87) 0.79 (0.76, 0.88) 0.73 (0.65, 0.91) 0.76 (0.68, 0.92)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.015 (0.01, 0.019) 0.015 (0.009, 0.017) 0.013 (0.009, 0.018) 0.012 (0.009, 0.015)
Taxane_CT count 4 4 4 4
time 43 (38, 52) 43 (38, 52) 43 (38, 52) 43 (38, 52)
n 32 (27, 40) 34 (26, 44) 28 (24, 34) 18 (12, 28)
post_p 0.73 (0.71, 0.74) 0.83 (0.81, 0.94) 0.74 (0.72, 0.79) 0.81 (0.73, 0.93)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.018 (0.014, 0.019) 0.011 (0.006, 0.013) 0.01 (0.009, 0.014) 0.009 (0.005, 0.013)
PARPi count 422 422 422 422
time 40 (31, 53) 40 (31, 53) 40 (31, 53) 40 (31, 53)
n 25 (17, 40) 27 (16, 41) 19 (12, 29) 20 (11, 30)
post_p 0.87 (0.72, 0.98) 0.86 (0.72, 0.98) 0.77 (0.71, 0.95) 0.79 (0.7, 0.96)
r_prob 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.008 (0.003, 0.013) 0.008 (0.003, 0.014) 0.008 (0, 0.014) 0.008 (0, 0.013)
TEfus+ ARSi count 3 3 3 3
time 35 (29, 49) 35 (29, 49) 35 (29, 49) 35 (29, 49)
n 5 (5, 20) 44 (31, 52) 10 (4, 21) 22 (10, 25)
post_p 0.66 (0.64, 0.8) 0.83 (0.81, 0.84) 0.73 (0.68, 0.87) 0.73 (0.68, 0.87)
r_prob 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.01 (0.008, 0.017) 0.016 (0.013, 0.017) 0.012 (0.009, 0.014) 0.009 (0.002, 0.009)
Taxane_CT count 5 5 5 5
time 53 (32, 57) 53 (32, 57) 53 (32, 57) 53 (32, 57)
n 38 (9, 45) 53 (34, 70) 19 (12, 45) 28 (21, 33)
post_p 0.75 (0.69, 0.86) 0.81 (0.75, 0.93) 0.72 (0.65, 0.8) 0.79 (0.75, 0.9)
r_prob 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.015 (0.008, 0.015) 0.018 (0.007, 0.021) 0.014 (0.008, 0.014) 0.015 (0.012, 0.018)
PARPi count 84 84 84 84
time 44 (33, 56) 44 (33, 56) 44 (33, 56) 44 (33, 56)
n 30 (19, 45) 47 (29, 72) 24 (15, 38) 17 (10, 27)
post_p 0.77 (0.71, 0.92) 0.76 (0.72, 0.91) 0.91 (0.73, 0.99) 0.81 (0.7, 0.98)
r_prob 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.015 (0.008, 0.02) 0.016 (0.01, 0.02) 0.008 (0.003, 0.012) 0.007 (0.001, 0.013)
Futility:
signature treatment var — –+ -+- -++ +– +-+ ++- +++
all ARSi count 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56
time 28 (16, 53) 28 (16, 53) 28 (16, 53) 28 (16, 53) 28 (16, 53) 28 (16, 53) 28 (16, 53) 28 (16, 53)
n 48 (26, 113) 14 (6, 30) 34 (18, 76) 22 (12, 41) 12 (7, 33) 12 (6, 23) 10 (4, 20) 11 (5, 20)
post_p 0.34 (0.1, 0.47) 0.38 (0.24, 0.49) 0.35 (0.11, 0.49) 0.37 (0.13, 0.49) 0.4 (0.13, 0.48) 0.38 (0.2, 0.47) 0.42 (0.23, 0.49) 0.37 (0.11, 0.48)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.025) 0.023 (0.015, 0.044) 0.021 (0.015, 0.031) 0.023 (0.014, 0.031) 0.024 (0.012, 0.035) 0.022 (0.016, 0.04) 0.023 (0.005, 0.04) 0.026 (0.011, 0.041)
Taxane_CT count 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63
time 30 (15, 51) 30 (15, 51) 30 (15, 51) 30 (15, 51) 30 (15, 51) 30 (15, 51) 30 (15, 51) 30 (15, 51)
n 54 (27, 110) 15 (7, 34) 32 (17, 72) 20 (12, 50) 14 (6, 27) 13 (6, 21) 9 (5, 21) 9 (5, 21)
post_p 0.37 (0.08, 0.48) 0.41 (0.24, 0.48) 0.38 (0.11, 0.49) 0.38 (0.11, 0.49) 0.38 (0.2, 0.48) 0.38 (0.2, 0.49) 0.35 (0.16, 0.49) 0.4 (0.23, 0.49)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.021 (0.017, 0.027) 0.021 (0.015, 0.034) 0.021 (0.014, 0.03) 0.023 (0.016, 0.032) 0.023 (0.013, 0.036) 0.022 (0.012, 0.042) 0.026 (0.013, 0.047) 0.024 (0.014, 0.041)
PARPi count 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
time 15 (15, 15) 15 (15, 15) 15 (15, 15) 15 (15, 15) 15 (15, 15) 15 (15, 15) 15 (15, 15) 15 (15, 15)
n 37 (37, 37) 13 (13, 13) 27 (27, 27) 10 (10, 10) 9 (9, 9) 3 (3, 3) 5 (5, 5) 6 (6, 6)
post_p 0.17 (0.17, 0.17) 0.46 (0.46, 0.46) 0.14 (0.14, 0.14) 0.32 (0.32, 0.32) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.48 (0.48, 0.48) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.038 (0.038, 0.038) 0.02 (0.02, 0.02) 0.032 (0.032, 0.032) 0.038 (0.038, 0.038) 0.018 (0.018, 0.018) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0.037 (0.037, 0.037)
TP53- ARSi count 222 222 222 222
time 23 (13, 47) 23 (13, 47) 23 (13, 47) 23 (13, 47)
n 53 (29, 115) 15 (7, 36) 13 (6, 33) 13 (7, 28)
post_p 0.34 (0.15, 0.47) 0.42 (0.24, 0.49) 0.4 (0.18, 0.49) 0.42 (0.21, 0.49)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.021 (0.015, 0.027) 0.023 (0.013, 0.038) 0.022 (0.013, 0.04) 0.022 (0.012, 0.037)
Taxane_CT count 221 221 221 221
time 23 (14, 49) 23 (14, 49) 23 (14, 49) 23 (14, 49)
n 52 (30, 121) 16 (8, 35) 14 (7, 29) 14 (7, 27)
post_p 0.37 (0.15, 0.47) 0.41 (0.23, 0.48) 0.41 (0.21, 0.49) 0.4 (0.18, 0.48)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.02 (0.015, 0.025) 0.022 (0.015, 0.034) 0.022 (0.013, 0.039) 0.023 (0.014, 0.039)
PARPi count 21 21 21 21
time 15 (12, 31) 15 (12, 31) 15 (12, 31) 15 (12, 31)
n 37 (29, 74) 10 (6, 18) 10 (7, 24) 9 (7, 15)
post_p 0.34 (0.17, 0.47) 0.44 (0.24, 0.5) 0.44 (0.41, 0.5) 0.45 (0.41, 0.48)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.021 (0.012, 0.033) 0.029 (0.016, 0.038) 0.018 (0.012, 0.038) 0.019 (0, 0.026)
TP53+ ARSi count 195 195 195 195
time 27 (16, 52) 27 (16, 52) 27 (16, 52) 27 (16, 52)
n 40 (22, 82) 27 (15, 61) 12 (6, 26) 12 (6, 27)
post_p 0.37 (0.14, 0.48) 0.37 (0.13, 0.48) 0.42 (0.22, 0.49) 0.4 (0.19, 0.48)
r_prob 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.022 (0.016, 0.027) 0.022 (0.015, 0.032) 0.021 (0.012, 0.037) 0.022 (0.013, 0.038)
Taxane_CT count 198 198 198 198
time 25 (16, 46) 25 (16, 46) 25 (16, 46) 25 (16, 46)
n 36 (23, 77) 25 (15, 53) 11 (6, 22) 11 (6, 22)
post_p 0.34 (0.14, 0.47) 0.39 (0.17, 0.48) 0.41 (0.2, 0.49) 0.43 (0.28, 0.49)
r_prob 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.03) 0.021 (0.015, 0.031) 0.023 (0.013, 0.04) 0.021 (0.013, 0.037)
PARPi count 27 27 27 27
time 20 (14, 33) 20 (14, 33) 20 (14, 33) 20 (14, 33)
n 32 (21, 56) 21 (14, 37) 9 (4, 18) 10 (5, 17)
post_p 0.4 (0.24, 0.47) 0.39 (0.13, 0.47) 0.44 (0.35, 0.49) 0.46 (0.43, 0.49)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.021 (0.017, 0.025) 0.023 (0.015, 0.031) 0.021 (0.01, 0.04) 0.018 (0.007, 0.027)
HRD+ ARSi count 195 195 195 195
time 34 (24, 52) 34 (24, 52) 34 (24, 52) 34 (24, 52)
n 18 (9, 36) 17 (10, 31) 14 (8, 29) 14 (7, 27)
post_p 0.37 (0.14, 0.47) 0.35 (0.15, 0.48) 0.38 (0.18, 0.48) 0.39 (0.15, 0.48)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.022 (0.015, 0.034) 0.022 (0.015, 0.037) 0.022 (0.014, 0.032) 0.021 (0.014, 0.034)
Taxane_CT count 194 194 194 194
time 34 (23, 50) 34 (23, 50) 34 (23, 50) 34 (23, 50)
n 18 (9, 36) 17 (10, 31) 14 (8, 27) 14 (8, 25)
post_p 0.34 (0.14, 0.47) 0.36 (0.14, 0.48) 0.38 (0.13, 0.48) 0.39 (0.2, 0.48)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.022 (0.016, 0.033) 0.021 (0.015, 0.033) 0.023 (0.015, 0.038) 0.021 (0.014, 0.036)
TEfus+ ARSi count 176 176 176 176
time 30 (19, 52) 30 (19, 52) 30 (19, 52) 30 (19, 52)
n 16 (8, 38) 28 (16, 57) 15 (8, 29) 13 (7, 25)
post_p 0.4 (0.2, 0.48) 0.36 (0.13, 0.47) 0.37 (0.15, 0.48) 0.41 (0.21, 0.48)
r_prob 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.022 (0.015, 0.035) 0.022 (0.016, 0.03) 0.023 (0.015, 0.039) 0.022 (0.013, 0.036)
Taxane_CT count 197 197 197 197
time 29 (19, 50) 29 (19, 50) 29 (19, 50) 29 (19, 50)
n 18 (10, 38) 27 (17, 57) 15 (9, 32) 12 (7, 23)
post_p 0.4 (0.16, 0.49) 0.34 (0.14, 0.48) 0.4 (0.17, 0.48) 0.41 (0.23, 0.48)
r_prob 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.022 (0.016, 0.033) 0.023 (0.016, 0.031) 0.021 (0.014, 0.033) 0.021 (0.014, 0.037)
PARPi count 11 11 11 11
time 26 (17, 50) 26 (17, 50) 26 (17, 50) 26 (17, 50)
n 17 (12, 28) 27 (19, 57) 19 (11, 23) 12 (5, 24)
post_p 0.38 (0.1, 0.47) 0.44 (0.09, 0.46) 0.45 (0.33, 0.5) 0.45 (0.35, 0.49)
r_prob 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.02 (0.015, 0.039) 0.019 (0.018, 0.031) 0.014 (0.008, 0.023) 0.013 (0.005, 0.024)